O medo da dívida

Recentemente, nos media, tem havido uma grande preocupação com os níveis de dívida de vários países da zona Euro ( e não só).

O caso mais mediático, que teve o seu apogeu neste mês de Janeiro que está quase no fim, foi o da Grécia. Um país que, nos mercados internacionais, é comparado à Irlanda, a Portugal, Espanha e Itália. São os denominados "PIIGS".
Ora esta comparação, a meu ver, não tem grande razão de ser, senão vejamos:
- Itália: um dos países do G8
- Espanha: taxas de desemprego de 15% a 20% são quase endémicas
- Irlanda: o menino bonito da UE que passou de um país pobre, insignificante e periférico para uma das economias mais vibrantes do início do século XXI, com amplas ligações aos EUA através da sua comunidade emigrante.
- Portugal: este já todos conhecemos

Deixei a Grécia para último lugar propositadamente. Este país, periférico, economicamente e politicamente instável desde a sua libertação do jugo otomano, sempre gozou das boas graças da União Europeia e do Ocidente em geral. Tal facto deve-se à sua posição geográfica na fronteira entre os Balcãs e a Ásia, entre o Mar Negro e o Mediterrâneo, entre o modo de vida ocidental, cristão, progressista e capitalista, e a cultura do Próximo Oriente, personificada pela Turquia, e a Rússia, que nos tempos da URSS circundava a Grécia por terra e mar.
A Grécia sempre foi o menino mimado da Europa por se encontrar nesta situação, tudo se lhe perdoava, todos a ajudavam, os próprios EUA viam na Grécia um bastião contra a URSS (daí a sua inclusão na NATO desde muito cedo). Mas chegamos a um ponto em que cada país tem de se preocupar com os seus próprios problemas económicos e políticos e a Grécia perdeu o seu estatuto de "queridinho do professor".

Interrogo-me se, caso fosse Portugal, a UE teria uma posição tão benevolente quando à nossa dívida pública ou se nos imporia uma série de restrições e medidas "à la FMI". Quem sabe... pode ser que num futuro próximo venhamos a descobrir.
Espero bem que não.

Feliz Natal de 2009!

Desejo a todos um Santo e Feliz Natal!
Que os mercados nos dêem uma prenda e subam como nunca antes até ao fim do ano ou desçam como se não houvesse amanhã, caso estejam curtos ;)

Os pânicos de mercado e o Socialismo para os ricos

Durante vários anos a principal política dos principais bancos centrais foi abafar os ciclos económicos. LTCM em 1998, crise do sector tecnológico em 2000, ataque terroristas de 2001 são alguns exemplos. No entanto, a magnitude da crise imobiliária e forte instabilidade dos mercados em 2008 surpreendeu tudo e todos. Os bancos centrais entram em pânico e baixam as taxas de juro para mínimos históricos; os governos deixam os défices orçamentais disparar para dois dígitos, os bancos centrais passam a monetizar a dívida dos governos etc. Perante estas medidas de natureza excepcional, esperavam-se resultados excepcionais. Mas menos de um ano decorrido será que os resultados são mesmo positivos?

Os mercados accionistas registaram uma forte recuperação desde Março. Mas depois da forte queda registada em 2007 e inicio de 2008, nada de surpreendente. Sobretudo tendo em conta as quantidades maciças de liquidez injectadas pelos bancos centrais nos mercados monetários. Esta acabou por se reflectir na cotação de acções. Mais notas a perseguirem a mesma quantidade de acções. Pura ilusão monetária. O ouro acima dos 1000 dólares a onça é a prova de que os investidores deixaram de acreditar no papel moeda. Alias a cotação do dólar é neste momento superior à do S&P500!

Em termos de desemprego, os resultados são tudo menos animadores. Nos Estados Unidos a taxa de desemprego ultrapassou os 10.0% no último mês e todos os meses tem havido destruição de emprego. Se tivermos em conta as pessoas desencorajadas que entretanto desistiram de procurar emprego, a taxa de desemprego deverá rondar os 15%. Ou seja, os programas de estimulo económico ainda não surtiram impacto neste indicador. Aumenta-se a despesa pública, endivida-se os países, deixa-se uma dívida para as gerações futuras pagarem e hipoteca-se os futuro das economias para quê?
Supostamente para aliviar a dor e remediar os erros cometidas por meia dúzia de instituições financeiras. Que com o consentimento e conivências das entidades de supervisão deixaram os balanços alavancar entre 20x a 30 vezes para empolar os resultados e bónus dos respectivos administradores. Puro socialismo para os ricos. 300 milhões de pessoas a pagar o erro de meia dúzia nos EUA. Será isto economia de mercado? Os coitadinhos do sector financeiro subsidiados e ajudados…

A riqueza das nações não se obtém com politicas irresponsáveis. Como brincar aos défices, às taxas de juro e à taxa de câmbio. Não se resolve um défice de poupança com mais despesa publica. Isto acaba por constituir um saque ao poder de compra das pessoas. E taxas de juro encostadas a zero não aumenta a poupança das pessoas.
Este tipo de políticas levou a duas década completamente perdidas no Japão. E não há ainda solução à vista. Taxas de juro zero, divida publica superior a 150% do PIB e a economia simplesmente não cresce.
Por fim note-se que os investidores de mercado se tomam decisões erradas têm de assumir as consequências dos seus actos. Se erram muitas vezes seguidas podem ir à falência. Não existem ajudas dos bancos centrais quando situações como a Worldcom, Enron ou Maddoff ocorrem.

Os mercados são animais difíceis de domar. Interferências nos mecanismo de mercado acabam por se pagar caro. As pessoas devem ser responsabilizadas pelas decisões que tomam. Sobretudo porque as economias de mercado vivem de avanços e recuos com empresas a vingar e outras a falir. O mercado deve acima de tudo ser tratado com respeito.

Texto da autoria de:
José Dias
Trader da sala de Mercados
Golden Broker, SA

As maiores reservas de ouro do mundo

Mais um ranking, cortesia da CNBC, que enumera os principais detentores de reservas de ouro a nível mundial.

1. United States
Gold Reserve Value: $298.36 billion
The United States Bullion Depository in Kentucky --- otherwise known as Fort Knox (left) --- is the most famous gold stockpile in the world. It holds the majority of the nation’s gold reserves, the remainder of which is held at the Philadelphia Mint, the Denver Mint, the West Point Bullion Depository and the San Francisco Assay Office. Altogether, the total gold reserves of the United States equal 8946.9 tons and are valued at approximately $298.36 billion.
2. Germany
Gold Reserve Value: $125.01 billion
The Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has 3749.1 tons of gold reserves, which are valued at about $125.01 billion. According to the World Gold Council, Germany’s gold coffers account for 69.2 percent of total foreign reserves.

3. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Gold Reserve Value: $118 billion

The IMF (left) oversees international economic operations of 185 member countries. Its gold policies have changed in the last 25 years, but the reserves remain to stabilize international markets and aid national economies. In one such instance, it sold a portion of its reserves in December 1999 to aid the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The 3539 tons of IMF Gold would fetch roughly $118 billion in today's market.

4. Italy
Gold Reserve Value: $89.92 billion

The Banca D'Italia (left) manages Italy's foreign reserves, which have been reported at 2697 tons by the World Gold Council and comprise the fourth largest gold reserve in the world. These holdings are worth $89.92 billion and account for 66.6 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

5. France
Gold Reserve Value: $89.68 billion

The French National Bank, Banque De France (left), is home to the country's large gold holdings, which comprise 70.6 percent of its foreign reserves. With 2689.6 tons of gold in reserve, France's holdings are worth approximately $89.68 billion.

6. China
Gold Reserve Value: $38.65 billion

At 1159.4 tons, the world's most heavily populated country has the world's sixth largest gold reserve. Expect it to be higher? Well, bear in mind that China's gold only accounts for 1.9 percent of its foreign reserves. With a population of 1.3 billion, the country holds about $29.74 worth of gold per person, totaling $38.65 billion.

7. Switzerland
Gold Reserve Value: $38.15 billion

The Swiss National Bank (left) conducts Switzerland's monetary policy and manages the country's 1,144.1 tons of gold. With the world's seventh largest reserve of the precious metal, Switzerland's supply is worth approximately $38.15 billion in today's gold market, accounting for 29.1 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

8. Japan
Gold Reserve Value: $28.07 billion

Although Japan is eighth on the list, its 841.7 tons of gold account for only 2.3 percent of total foreign reserves. On the open market, Japan's gold reserves are worth around $28.07 billion, and are overseen by the Bank of Japan (left).

9. Netherlands
Gold Reserve Value: $22.47 billion

The Netherlands has the ninth largest reserve on the list with 673.8 tons of gold. The Netherland Bank manages the country’s national finances, including the gold reserves, which amount to approximately $22.47 billion in the current market and account for 59.6 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

10. Russia
Gold Reserve Value: $20.85 billion

Russia has the tenth largest reserve on the list. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is in charge of the country’s 625.2 tons of gold, which are valued at $20.85 billion and comprise 4.3% of the country’s foreign reserves. In the first seven months of 2009 Russia increased its gold production by 21%, due in part to the launch of several new mines.

11. European Central Bank (ECB)
Gold Reserve Value: $18.39 billion

Established in 1998 by the European Union, the European Central Bank (left) is responsible for the monetary policy of the member nations of the Eurozone and is headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. The 551.5 tons of gold accounts for 18.8 percent of the ECB's foreign reserves and would be worth $18.39 billion in the open market.

12. Taiwan
Gold Reserve Value: $15.53 billion

Renowned for its technology industry and robust economic growth, Taiwan also boasts the twelfth largest gold reserve in the world. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) manages the island nation’s foreign reserves, which have been reported at 466 tons. These holdings are worth $15.53 billion and comprise 3.9 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

13. Portugal
Gold Reserve Value: $14.03 billion

The westernmost nation in mainland Europe is home to the thirteenth largest gold reserve in the world. At 420.8 tons, Portugal’s holdings are overseen by Banco de Portugal and are worth roughly $14.03 billion, accounting for 90.9 percent of the country’s foreign reserves.

14. India
Gold Reserve Value: $13.12 billion

The second most populous nation in the world has the fourteenth largest reserve on this list. The Reserve Bank of India oversees the country’s 393.5 tons of gold, which are valued at $13.12 billion and comprise 4.0% of its foreign reserves. India’s current ranking may change, however, as the government has asked the Geological Survey of India to mine the previously untapped gold reserves in many of its states.

15. Venezuela
Gold Reserve Value: $13.07 billion

Banco Central de Venezuela manages the 392 tons of gold in the country’s reserves, which amount to approximately $13.07 billion and represent 36.1 percent of Venezuela's foreign reserves. Although Venezuela currently has the fifteenth largest reserve on the list, president Hugo Chavez announced in June 2009 that his government has introduced new policies to promote gold extraction and boost its ranking.

Os países com maior investimento directo estrangeiro

1. United States
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $316.11 billion (18.6% of world total)
Outflow: $311.79 billion (16.8% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $271.18 billion (13.7% of world total)
Outflow: $378.36 billion (17.6% of world total)

Pictured: Exterior of the New York Stock Exchange, New York City.

2. France
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $117.51 billion (6.9% of world total)
Outflow: $220.05 billion (11.8% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $157.97 billion (7.9% of world total)
Outflow: $224.65 billion (10.4% of world total)

Pictured: Mechanics work on Gazelle helicopter at the Eurocopter factory, in Marignane,


3. China
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $108.31 billion (6.4% of world total)
Outflow: $52.15 billion (2.8% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $83.52 billion (4.2% of world total)
Outflow: $22.47 billion (1% of world total)

Pictured: Worker welds interior of a car, Geely auto factory, Ningbo, China.


4. United Kingdom
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $96.94 billion (5.7% of world total)
Outflow: $111.41 billion (6% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $183.39 billion (9.3% of world total)
Outflow: $275.48 billion (12.8% of world total)

Pictured: Sign at London Stock Exchange, England


5. Russian Federation
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $70.32 billion (4.1% of world total)
Outflow: $52.39 billion (2.8% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $55.07 billion (2.8% of world total)
Outflow: $45.92 billion (2.1% of world total)

Pictured: Renault Logan cars on production line at Avtoframos automobile plant in Moscow, Russia.


6. Spain
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $65.54 billion (3.9% of world total)
Outflow: $77.32 billion (4.2% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $28.18 billion (1.4% of world total)
Outflow: $96.06 billion (4.5% of world total)

Pictured: Madrid Stock Exchange, Madrid, Spain

Os países com maior investimento directo estrangeiro

7. Hong Kong
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $63 billion (3.7% of world total)
Outflow: $59.92 billion (3.2% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $54.37 billion (2.7% of world total)
Outflow: $61.12 billion (2.8% of world total)

Pictured: Motorola Semiconductor workers leave factory at end of work day, Hong Kong

8. Belgium
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $59.68 billion (3.5% of world total)
Outflow: $68.79 billion (3.7% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $110.77 billion (5.6% of world total)
Outflow: $93.90 billion (4.4% of world total)

Pictured: Windmills at the port of Zeebrugge, Belgium.


9. Australia
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $46.77 billion (2.8% of world total)
Outflow: $35.93 billion (1.9% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $44.33 billion (2.2% of world total)
Outflow: $16.81 billion (0.78% of world total)

Pictured: Farmer watches Merino sheep during muster, Young, Australia


10. Brazil
2008 FDI Statistics

Inflow: $45.06 billion (2.7% of world total)

Outflow: $20.46 billion (1.1% of world total)

2007 FDI Statistics

Inflow: $34.59 billion (1.7% of world total)

Outflow: $7.07 billion (0.33% of world total)

Pictured: Workers carry plywood at a factory, Curitiba, Brazil

Os países com maior investimento directo estrangeiro

Ora cá está mais uma lista, cortesia da CNBC, com os países que têm maior investimento directo estrangeiro!

11. Canada
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $44.71 billion (2.6% of world total)
Outflow: $77.67 billion (4.2% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $108.41 billion (5.5% of world total)
Outflow: $59.64 billion (2.8% of world total)

Pictured: Ford Motors St. Thomas assembly plant, Ontario, Canada

12. Sweden
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $43.66 billion (2.6% of world total)
Outflow: $37.351 billion (2% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $22.07 billion (1.1% of world total)
Outflow: $37.80 billion (1.8% of world total)

Pictured: Customer shops for meat in market, Stockholm, Sweden.


13. Germany
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $24.94 billion (1.5% of world total)
Outflow: $156.46 billion (8.4% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $56.41 billion (2.9% of world total)
Outflow: $179.55 billion (8.4% of world total)

Pictured: Airbus factory in Nordenham, northern Germany.


14. Japan
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $24.43 billion (1.4% of world total)
Outflow: $128.02 billion (6.9% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $22.55 billion (1.1% of world total)
Outflow: $73.55 billion (3.4% of world total)

Pictured: Workers at Snow Brand Milk Products Company factory


15. Singapore
2008 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $22.73 billion (1.3% of world total)
Outflow: $8.93 billion (0.48% of world total)
2007 FDI Statistics
Inflow: $31.55 billion (1.6% of world total)
Outflow: $24.56 billion (1.1% of world total)

Pictured: Street scene with Convention Center towers seen through slight haze, Singapore