Portugal: o primeiro da zona Euro a falir?

Um artigo interessante que Carlos Santos escreveu para o Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) e que faz todo o sentido ler e reflectir.

Portugal to be first to default

The so-called Keynesian consensus that seemed to emerge following Obama’s stimulus package, was a short-lived one. Governments, mainly in the eurozone shatter belt, are dropping the same public policies they had put forth a year ago. It is not that unemployment has decreased – on the contrary. Nonetheless, “special social measures” and “job creating” public investment is being curtailed.

This should be sufficient evidence that the Keynesian answer to the crisis has failed. The Keynesian stimulus plans ignored the very low saving rates. In particular, Greece and Portugal had the lowest internal liquid savings rates (when public and private savings are added, and replacement investment deducted) of the last decade. Indeed, both countries had negative saving rates in 2008, with Portugal hitting a low of -5.8% of GDP against an EU average of 6%! It is no surprise that such highly indebted countries are now paying heavily for such leveraging.

Added to this, the Portuguese socialist government failed to understand that it should cut spending drastically. Instead, it has decided to increase taxes to respond to market worries about government borrowing. Taking into account the deep level of leveraging, both in the public and the private sector, the tax rise simply added to the risk of a banking failure, as it passed on debt from the government to households and firms, leaving the size of government untouched.

As such default probabilities on credit derivatives based on Portuguese sovereign debt remain very high; interest rates spreads are increasing; and bank refinancing is more expensive, leading to added costs for indebted firms and households, as well as to another increase in the budget deficit.

The question is: how is the government going to avoid default? Raising taxes again will be suicidal, and reducing the public sector wage bubble is anathema. Public sector wages have never been frozen in Portugal, and they are still growing. If the government does not lower them, there is no way Portugal will get out of its debt trap. I would bet on Portugal being the first eurozone country to default.

Fonte: http://blog.iea.org.uk/?p=2893

O medo da dívida

Recentemente, nos media, tem havido uma grande preocupação com os níveis de dívida de vários países da zona Euro ( e não só).

O caso mais mediático, que teve o seu apogeu neste mês de Janeiro que está quase no fim, foi o da Grécia. Um país que, nos mercados internacionais, é comparado à Irlanda, a Portugal, Espanha e Itália. São os denominados "PIIGS".
Ora esta comparação, a meu ver, não tem grande razão de ser, senão vejamos:
- Itália: um dos países do G8
- Espanha: taxas de desemprego de 15% a 20% são quase endémicas
- Irlanda: o menino bonito da UE que passou de um país pobre, insignificante e periférico para uma das economias mais vibrantes do início do século XXI, com amplas ligações aos EUA através da sua comunidade emigrante.
- Portugal: este já todos conhecemos

Deixei a Grécia para último lugar propositadamente. Este país, periférico, economicamente e politicamente instável desde a sua libertação do jugo otomano, sempre gozou das boas graças da União Europeia e do Ocidente em geral. Tal facto deve-se à sua posição geográfica na fronteira entre os Balcãs e a Ásia, entre o Mar Negro e o Mediterrâneo, entre o modo de vida ocidental, cristão, progressista e capitalista, e a cultura do Próximo Oriente, personificada pela Turquia, e a Rússia, que nos tempos da URSS circundava a Grécia por terra e mar.
A Grécia sempre foi o menino mimado da Europa por se encontrar nesta situação, tudo se lhe perdoava, todos a ajudavam, os próprios EUA viam na Grécia um bastião contra a URSS (daí a sua inclusão na NATO desde muito cedo). Mas chegamos a um ponto em que cada país tem de se preocupar com os seus próprios problemas económicos e políticos e a Grécia perdeu o seu estatuto de "queridinho do professor".

Interrogo-me se, caso fosse Portugal, a UE teria uma posição tão benevolente quando à nossa dívida pública ou se nos imporia uma série de restrições e medidas "à la FMI". Quem sabe... pode ser que num futuro próximo venhamos a descobrir.
Espero bem que não.

As maiores reservas de ouro do mundo

Mais um ranking, cortesia da CNBC, que enumera os principais detentores de reservas de ouro a nível mundial.

1. United States
Gold Reserve Value: $298.36 billion
The United States Bullion Depository in Kentucky --- otherwise known as Fort Knox (left) --- is the most famous gold stockpile in the world. It holds the majority of the nation’s gold reserves, the remainder of which is held at the Philadelphia Mint, the Denver Mint, the West Point Bullion Depository and the San Francisco Assay Office. Altogether, the total gold reserves of the United States equal 8946.9 tons and are valued at approximately $298.36 billion.
2. Germany
Gold Reserve Value: $125.01 billion
The Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has 3749.1 tons of gold reserves, which are valued at about $125.01 billion. According to the World Gold Council, Germany’s gold coffers account for 69.2 percent of total foreign reserves.

3. International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Gold Reserve Value: $118 billion

The IMF (left) oversees international economic operations of 185 member countries. Its gold policies have changed in the last 25 years, but the reserves remain to stabilize international markets and aid national economies. In one such instance, it sold a portion of its reserves in December 1999 to aid the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The 3539 tons of IMF Gold would fetch roughly $118 billion in today's market.

4. Italy
Gold Reserve Value: $89.92 billion

The Banca D'Italia (left) manages Italy's foreign reserves, which have been reported at 2697 tons by the World Gold Council and comprise the fourth largest gold reserve in the world. These holdings are worth $89.92 billion and account for 66.6 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

5. France
Gold Reserve Value: $89.68 billion

The French National Bank, Banque De France (left), is home to the country's large gold holdings, which comprise 70.6 percent of its foreign reserves. With 2689.6 tons of gold in reserve, France's holdings are worth approximately $89.68 billion.

6. China
Gold Reserve Value: $38.65 billion

At 1159.4 tons, the world's most heavily populated country has the world's sixth largest gold reserve. Expect it to be higher? Well, bear in mind that China's gold only accounts for 1.9 percent of its foreign reserves. With a population of 1.3 billion, the country holds about $29.74 worth of gold per person, totaling $38.65 billion.

7. Switzerland
Gold Reserve Value: $38.15 billion

The Swiss National Bank (left) conducts Switzerland's monetary policy and manages the country's 1,144.1 tons of gold. With the world's seventh largest reserve of the precious metal, Switzerland's supply is worth approximately $38.15 billion in today's gold market, accounting for 29.1 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

8. Japan
Gold Reserve Value: $28.07 billion

Although Japan is eighth on the list, its 841.7 tons of gold account for only 2.3 percent of total foreign reserves. On the open market, Japan's gold reserves are worth around $28.07 billion, and are overseen by the Bank of Japan (left).

9. Netherlands
Gold Reserve Value: $22.47 billion

The Netherlands has the ninth largest reserve on the list with 673.8 tons of gold. The Netherland Bank manages the country’s national finances, including the gold reserves, which amount to approximately $22.47 billion in the current market and account for 59.6 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

10. Russia
Gold Reserve Value: $20.85 billion

Russia has the tenth largest reserve on the list. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is in charge of the country’s 625.2 tons of gold, which are valued at $20.85 billion and comprise 4.3% of the country’s foreign reserves. In the first seven months of 2009 Russia increased its gold production by 21%, due in part to the launch of several new mines.

11. European Central Bank (ECB)
Gold Reserve Value: $18.39 billion

Established in 1998 by the European Union, the European Central Bank (left) is responsible for the monetary policy of the member nations of the Eurozone and is headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany. The 551.5 tons of gold accounts for 18.8 percent of the ECB's foreign reserves and would be worth $18.39 billion in the open market.

12. Taiwan
Gold Reserve Value: $15.53 billion

Renowned for its technology industry and robust economic growth, Taiwan also boasts the twelfth largest gold reserve in the world. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) manages the island nation’s foreign reserves, which have been reported at 466 tons. These holdings are worth $15.53 billion and comprise 3.9 percent of the country's foreign reserves.

13. Portugal
Gold Reserve Value: $14.03 billion

The westernmost nation in mainland Europe is home to the thirteenth largest gold reserve in the world. At 420.8 tons, Portugal’s holdings are overseen by Banco de Portugal and are worth roughly $14.03 billion, accounting for 90.9 percent of the country’s foreign reserves.

14. India
Gold Reserve Value: $13.12 billion

The second most populous nation in the world has the fourteenth largest reserve on this list. The Reserve Bank of India oversees the country’s 393.5 tons of gold, which are valued at $13.12 billion and comprise 4.0% of its foreign reserves. India’s current ranking may change, however, as the government has asked the Geological Survey of India to mine the previously untapped gold reserves in many of its states.

15. Venezuela
Gold Reserve Value: $13.07 billion

Banco Central de Venezuela manages the 392 tons of gold in the country’s reserves, which amount to approximately $13.07 billion and represent 36.1 percent of Venezuela's foreign reserves. Although Venezuela currently has the fifteenth largest reserve on the list, president Hugo Chavez announced in June 2009 that his government has introduced new policies to promote gold extraction and boost its ranking.

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